Data from China suggests that economic activity could resume after initial containment and not trigger new COVID-19 cases

Summary

- A study was published in early 2020 by Ainslie and colleagues (), suggesting that, after initial containment is achieved, within-city movement (measured through a “Movement Index”) seems to be uncorrelated with new COVID-19 cases.

- Within-city movement is used in the study as a proxy for economic activity.

- Economic activity seems to have successfully resumed within approximately 2 weeks from containment, and approximately 4 weeks from the peak of new cases.

Within-city movement vs. new COVID-19 cases

The graphs below summarize key results from a study published in early 2020 by Ainslie and colleagues (). Dr. Ainslie is in the Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College London. The study looked at within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity, and how that movement has influenced the numbers of new cases of COVID-19 in various areas, after initial containment.

As you can see, after initial containment is achieved, within-city movement (measured through a “Movement Index”) seems to be uncorrelated with new COVID-19 cases; or somewhat negatively correlated, as the authors note. This rather surprising and counterintuitive outcome may be due to people becoming much more cautious about social interactions.

Time to resumption of economic activity

Note from the graphs that economic activity seems to resume within approximately 2 weeks from containment, and approximately 4 weeks from the peak of new cases.

Also note that containment has been fairly effective in China. The Chinese government has enforced it through strict lockdowns. Perhaps this is what makes people so cautious about social interactions afterwards, which we speculate might be at the source of the success of their strategy.

From an economic revival perspective, these are good news – particularly if the same approach can be replicated in other countries and regions.