How far are we from a recession according to the Sahm Rule in August 2024?

The figure below shows the adjusted three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate in the U.S. for the past 12 months, with the minimum and current values indicated at the bottom-left and top-right areas. This is known as the Sahm Recession Indicator, which signals the start of a recession when the it rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its minimum value in the previous 12 months. The Sahm Recession Indicator has been named after economist Claudia Sahm.

If the adjusted three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate, or the the Sahm Recession Indicator, continues rising at the same rate, we should either be in recession right now in August 2024, or enter a recession within the next few months – according to the Sahm Rule, which is based on the Indicator. The video linked below provides a brief discussion on this a few other related issues.